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Electoral District Projections — British Columbia

Latest update: May 6, 2026

The Road to 47 Seats

Less likely More likely Majority: 47 seats Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe V-STR Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe V-HAS Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe V-SG Vancouver-West End NDP safe V-WE Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe V-REN North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe NVLO Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe V-LM Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe V-KEN Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe VI-SL New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe NWCQ Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe ESQC Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe BU-NW Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP likely OAKB Vancouver-Point Grey NDP likely V-PG North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP likely NCHG Saanich South NDP likely SAAS Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP likely NAGA Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely V-FRV North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely NVSM Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely POWR Langford-Highlands NDP likely LFHL Port Coquitlam NDP likely POCQ Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP likely NALA Burnaby Centre NDP likely BU-C Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP leaning CQMA Delta North NDP leaning DELN Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP leaning PMBQ Burnaby East NDP leaning BU-E Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP leaning MIPR Burnaby North NDP leaning BU-N Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP leaning MAPP Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP leaning VI-BH Kootenay-Monashee NDP leaning KOOM Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning LADY Surrey-Newton NDP leaning SU-NW Burnaby South-Metrotown Toss up BU-SM Vancouver-Yaletown Toss up V-YAL Kootenay Central Toss up KOOC Surrey-Fleetwood Toss up SU-FL Cowichan Valley Toss up COWV Vancouver-Langara Toss up V-LAN Richmond-Steveston Toss up RCHS Surrey City Centre Toss up SU-CC Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up CQBM Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up JUAN Surrey-Guildford CPBC leaning SU-GF Maple Ridge East CPBC leaning MAPE Courtenay-Comox CPBC leaning COCO Surrey-Panorama CPBC leaning SU-PA North Island CPBC leaning NOIS Surrey-Serpentine River CPBC leaning SU-SR Surrey-Cloverdale CPBC leaning SU-CL Vernon-Lumby CPBC leaning VERL Langley-Willowbrook CPBC leaning LGWI Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC likely LGWG Kelowna Centre CPBC likely KWCE Surrey North CPBC likely SU-N Penticton-Summerland CPBC likely PENT Richmond-Queensborough CPBC likely RCHQ Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely SU-WR Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC likely CORR Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC likely V-QUI Skeena CPBC likely SKEE Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC likely CHIC Delta South CPBC likely DELS Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely ABBM Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely BOMI Saanich North and the Islands GRN likely SAAN Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely BULK Kamloops Centre CPBC likely KAMC Richmond Centre CPBC likely RCHC Surrey South CPBC safe SU-S Chilliwack North CPBC safe CHIN Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC safe KWLC Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe RCHB Abbotsford West CPBC safe ABBW Abbotsford South CPBC safe ABBS Fraser-Nicola CPBC safe FRNI Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe LGAB Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe PGVA Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe KWMI West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe WV-CA Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe KAMN West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe WKWP Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe SSHU Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe CARI Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe KOOR Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe PGMA Nechako Lakes CPBC safe NECH West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN likely WV-SS Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe PGNC Peace River South CPBC safe PR-S Peace River North CPBC safe PR-N V-STR V-HAS V-SG V-WE V-REN NVLO V-LM V-KEN VI-SL NWCQ ESQC BU-NW OAKB V-PG NCHG SAAS NAGA V-FRV NVSM POWR LFHL POCQ NALA BU-C CQMA DELN PMBQ BU-E MIPR BU-N MAPP VI-BH KOOM LADY SU-NW BU-SM V-YAL KOOC SU-FL COWV V-LAN RCHS SU-CC CQBM JUAN SU-GF MAPE COCO SU-PA NOIS SU-SR SU-CL VERL LGWI LGWG KWCE SU-N PENT RCHQ SU-WR CORR V-QUI SKEE CHIC DELS ABBM BOMI SAAN BULK KAMC RCHC SU-S CHIN KWLC RCHB ABBW ABBS FRNI LGAB PGVA KWMI WV-CA KAMN WKWP SSHU CARI KOOR PGMA NECH WV-SS PGNC PR-S PR-N 338Canada British Columbia Projection Latest update: May 6, 2026 ▲53 CPBC [39-64] NDP 38▼ [27-52]

Electoral districts
Current party
 Projection
Abbotsford South
Bruce Banman
 C CPBC safe
Abbotsford West
Korky Neufeld
 C CPBC safe
Abbotsford-Mission
Reann Gasper
 C CPBC likely
Boundary-Similkameen
Donegal Wilson
 C CPBC likely
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Sharon L. Hartwell
 C CPBC likely
Burnaby Centre
Anne Kang
 N NDP likely
Burnaby East
Reah Arora
 N NDP leaning
Burnaby North
Janet Routledge
 N NDP leaning
Burnaby South-Metrotown
Paul Choi
 N Toss up
Burnaby-New Westminster
Raj Chouhan
 N NDP safe
Cariboo-Chilcotin
Lorne Doerkson
 C CPBC safe
Chilliwack North
Heather Maahs
 C CPBC safe
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
A’aliya Warbus
 C CPBC likely
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Scott McInnis
 C CPBC likely
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Jodie Wickens
 N Toss up
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Jennifer Blatherwick
 N NDP leaning
Courtenay-Comox
Brennan Day
 C CPBC leaning
Cowichan Valley
Debra Toporowski
 N Toss up
Delta North
Ravi Kahlon
 N NDP leaning
Delta South
Ian Paton
 C CPBC likely
Esquimalt-Colwood
Darlene Rotchford
 N NDP safe
Fraser-Nicola
Tony Luck
 C CPBC safe
Juan de Fuca-Malahat
Dana Lajeunesse
 N Toss up
Kamloops Centre
Peter Milobar
 C CPBC likely
Kamloops-North Thompson
Ward Stamer
 C CPBC safe
Kelowna Centre
Kristina Loewen
 C CPBC likely
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream
Tara Armstrong [Elected with CP]
 I CPBC safe
Kelowna-Mission
Gavin Dew
 C CPBC safe
Kootenay Central
Brittny Anderson
 N Toss up
Kootenay-Monashee
Steve Morissette
 N NDP leaning
Kootenay-Rockies
Pete Davis
 C CPBC safe
Ladysmith-Oceanside
Stephanie Higginson
 N NDP leaning
Langford-Highlands
Ravi Parmar
 N NDP likely
Langley-Abbotsford
Harman Bhangu
 C CPBC safe
Langley-Walnut Grove
Misty Van Popta
 C CPBC likely
Langley-Willowbrook
Jody Toor
 C CPBC leaning
Maple Ridge East
Lawrence Mok
 C CPBC leaning
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Lisa Beare
 N NDP leaning
Mid Island-Pacific Rim
Josie Osborne
 N NDP leaning
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island
Sheila Malcolmson
 N NDP likely
Nanaimo-Lantzville
George Anderson
 N NDP likely
Nechako Lakes
John Rustad
 C CPBC safe
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Jennifer Whiteside
 N NDP safe
North Coast-Haida Gwaii
Tamara Davidson
 N NDP likely
North Island
Anna Kindy
 C CPBC leaning
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Bowinn Ma
 N NDP safe
North Vancouver-Seymour
Susie Chant
 N NDP likely
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Diana Gibson
 N NDP likely
Peace River North
Jordan Kealy [Elected with CP]
 I CPBC safe
Peace River South
Larry Neufeld
 C CPBC safe
Penticton-Summerland
Amelia Boultbee
 C CPBC likely
Port Coquitlam
Mike Farnworth
 N NDP likely
Port Moody-Burquitlam
Rick Glumac
 N NDP leaning
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Randene Neill
 N NDP likely
Prince George-Mackenzie
Kiel Giddens
 C CPBC safe
Prince George-North Cariboo
Sheldon Clare
 C CPBC safe
Prince George-Valemount
Rosalyn Bird
 C CPBC safe
Richmond Centre
Hon Chan
 C CPBC likely
Richmond-Bridgeport
Teresa Wat
 C CPBC safe
Richmond-Queensborough
Steve Kooner
 C CPBC likely
Richmond-Steveston
Kelly Greene
 N Toss up
Saanich North and the Islands
Rob Botterell
 G GRN likely
Saanich South
Lana Popham
 N NDP likely
Salmon Arm-Shuswap
David L. Williams
 C CPBC safe
Skeena
Claire Rattée
 C CPBC likely
Surrey City Centre
Amna Shah
 N Toss up
Surrey North
Mandeep Dhaliwal
 C CPBC likely
Surrey South
Brent Chapman
 C CPBC safe
Surrey-Cloverdale
Elenore Sturko [Elected with CP]
 I CPBC leaning
Surrey-Fleetwood
Jagrup Brar
 N Toss up
Surrey-Guildford
Garry Begg
 N CPBC leaning
Surrey-Newton
Jessie Sunner
 N NDP leaning
Surrey-Panorama
Bryan Tepper
 C CPBC leaning
Surrey-Serpentine River
Linda Hepner
 C CPBC leaning
Surrey-White Rock
Trevor Halford
 C CPBC likely
Vancouver-Fraserview
George Chow
 N NDP likely
Vancouver-Hastings
Niki Sharma
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Kensington
Mable Elmore
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Langara
Sunita Dhir
 N Toss up
Vancouver-Little Mountain
Christine Boyle
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Point Grey
David Eby
 N NDP likely
Vancouver-Quilchena
Dallas Brodie [Elected with CP]
 O CPBC likely
Vancouver-Renfrew
Adrian Dix
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-South Granville
Brenda Bailey
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Strathcona
Joan Phillip
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-West End
Spencer Chandra Herbert
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Yaletown
Terry Yung
 N Toss up
Vernon-Lumby
Harwinder Sandhu
 N CPBC leaning
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Grace Lore
 N NDP leaning
Victoria-Swan Lake
Nina Krieger
 N NDP safe
West Kelowna-Peachland
Macklin McCall
 C CPBC safe
West Vancouver-Capilano
Lynne Block
 C CPBC safe
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Jeremy Valeriote
 G GRN likely